Chhattisgarh — lengthy thought-about a fort of the Congress, even in undivided Madhya Pradesh when the celebration used to win the utmost seats from the area — was created in 2000 and received its first chief minister in Ajit Pramod Kumar Jogi, a bureaucrat-turned-politician then a part of the Congress.
Three years of his tenure noticed loads of ups and downs and a flip in the direction of caste politics. Because of this, within the 2003 Meeting polls, a public in turmoil introduced the BJP to energy, and the saffron celebration has been ruling the state for 15 years now under Raman Singh.
Ajit Jogi, the ‘spoilsport’
Two years in the past, Jogi and his son Amit broke away from the Congress over allegations of anti-party actions, and Jogi was fast to kind the JCC, a regional outfit with a nationwide outlook. At the moment, he’s a legal responsibility to each the BJP and Congress, although each refuse to confess it.
Congress leaders known as his celebration the ‘B-team’ of the BJP, whereas the BJP insists JCC won’t make any affect within the state polls. But, Jogi has performed his playing cards tactfully, allying with Mayawati’s BSP and the CPI, with the coalition more likely to mar the prospects of the 2 principal events.
For this election, the JCC and BSP have determined to go for a 55:35 seat-sharing ratio, with JCC getting the chunk of seats and the chief minister’s chair. Their alliance is predicted to capitalise on 15 seats — a quantity massive sufficient to change the course of presidency formation in Chhattisgarh.
Jogi additionally not too long ago introduced withdrawal from the election fray, saying he would totally think about the alliance’s election marketing campaign in 90 seats, after difficult Chief Minister Raman Singh to an open contest in his dwelling turf of Rajnandgaon. Nonetheless, by Monday, there have been speculations that Jogi could take a U-turn on his earlier stand, after folks from his conventional stronghold of Marwahi constituency approached him and requested his nomination.
Going by the 2013 election math, the BSP has a substantial presence in 11 Meeting constituencies, with its vote share starting from 1 p.c to 30 p.c in these seats. At the moment, the celebration’s lone MLA is Keshav Chandra, who has been retained as a candidate from Jaijaipur.
In 2003, the BSP had received two seats within the Meeting — Kamda Jhole from Sarangarh (Scheduled Caste) and Lalsay Khunte from Malkharoda (SC) — and in 2008, it had bagged the 2 seats of Akaltara and Pamgarh below Saurabh Singh and Dujram Bouddh. The BJP had received 50 seats that 12 months, whereas the Congress held 38. In 2013, Saurabh give up the BSP and joined the Congress. Jhole was expelled from the BSP for anti-party actions.
Historically talking, Jogi’s supporters have been seen gravitating in the direction of the BJP, however with the JCC in motion, all such votes are anticipated to shift again to his celebration, hitting on the BJP and Congress vote-bank — each events had a vote distinction of slightly below 1 p.c within the final elections.
Jogi’s household itself has appreciable affect within the Marwahi and Kota constituencies of Chhattisgarh. On Congress tickets, Jogi’s son Amit had received from Marwahi, whereas Jogi’s spouse Renu had emerged victorious in Kota. Amit is now with Jogi’s JCC, however Renu has expressed her want to go for a Congress ticket once more.
Two sitting Congress MLAs, Siyaram Kaushik from Bilha and RK Rai from Gunderdehi constituencies, are with Jogi now, however his daughter-in-law Richa Jogi is within the fray from Akaltara on a BSP ticket. JCC’s former candidate from Chandrapur, Gitanjali Patel, additionally joined the BSP a number of days in the past and has been retained on the celebration ticket.
Nonetheless, Chhattisgarh’s ballot historical past exhibits that candidates have not often received elections until they’ve been mass leaders.
CPI, the add-on
On Sunday, Jogi introduced a pre-poll alliance with the CPI for the Chhattisgarh elections, with the Left celebration getting two seats to contest in South Bastar — Dantewada and Konta — the place it already has appreciable affect. CPI’s Manish Kunjam, a former MLA, will combat in opposition to Deputy Chief of Opposition and Congress’ sitting MLA Kawasi Lakhma from Konta.
CR Bakshi, central management fee secretary of the CPI, stated the celebration would area candidates on different seats, too, reminiscent of Jagdalpur, Kondagaon and Keshkal, and the alliance will assist them. Candidates have already been declared for these seats, in addition to for Dantewada. The Janjgir-Champa district can be being thought-about for the polls.
More likely to be part of the JCC-BSP-CPI coalition is the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha, whose president Janak Lal Thakur confirmed that that they had held talks with CPI leaders. He hopes a ultimate resolution on the alliance will likely be made quickly.
Jogi has expressed hope that folks will develop a way of belonging with the alliance, headed by the regional JCC. Jogi’s father has a following amongst Dalits, Muslims and Christians and, he stated, the three events are cadre-based, having a direct hyperlink with the poor and downtrodden, in addition to an understanding of native aspirations.
In his manifesto, Jogi has already submitted an affidavit, itemizing the 12 issues he would do if he involves energy. He identified that no different political celebration has readability on guarantees to voters as they must look in the direction of New Delhi for decision-making, whereas his JCC has no such compulsions.
BJP state normal secretary Santosh Pandey admitted that the JCC-BSP-CPI alliance has an affect in round 11-12 SC-dominated seats, primarily within the Janjgir-Champa area and the Left-favoured three seats within the Bastar area, together with Bilaspur. “The alliance will likely be concentrating on these winnable seats. However it might not have a lot affect on the BJP,” Pandey insisted.
One other entrant within the Chhattisgarh political area with a lot fanfare is the Aam Aadmi Occasion (AAP), which claims to be a beneficial various to each the BJP and Congress. Its state in-charge, Gopal Rai, has already termed the JCC-BSP-CPI alliance a sinking boat.
Clearly, AAP is anticipating to repeat its New Delhi efficiency in Chhattisgarh, however going by the celebration’s efficiency within the Karnataka Meeting polls, even opening their account in Chhattisgarh will likely be an achievement.
The writer is a Raipur-based freelance author and a part of 101Reporters